Mesoscale Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting for Water Resources Management

Project Leader

François Anctil
Chaire de recherche EDS en prévisions et actions hydrologiques
Département de génie civil et de génie des eaux, Université Laval

Short Project Description

Our full project aims at designing an efficient short- range hydrological ensemble forecasting system adapted to the climate and hydrology of the Great-Lakes and Saint Lawrence River basin. This system will rely on the dynamical downscaling of ensemble forecasts issued at a horizontal resolution of 100 km by EC to a resolution of 35 km using the limited-area numerical weather forecasting model GEM-LAM, using an approach developed jointly by EC and McGill University. This atmospheric forecasting system will be coupled to a short-range hydrological forecasting system, including pertinent statistical tools for the verification and the post calibration of the predictive distributions. It is believed that such a system should improve forecasts and help maximize hydropower production and minimize flood risks.